The domestic steel inventory data is not ideal,steel prices have a high probability of falling

Shipment and transactions in the steel market slowed significantly this week. The continuous heavy rain in the south affected the downstream construction. The rate of downsizing of the five major steel varieties narrowed to 330,000 tons. The output of steel continued to increase by 150,000 tons. The rain belt moved north. The impact of price has begun to appear, especially the impact of construction steel.

Since the fall of the five major varieties, the factory's warehouse has increased from a decline for the first time. This week, steel mill inventories increased by 52,800 tons from last week, and the total inventory decline has also narrowed significantly to 334,700 tons, the lowest value since the decline. The output increased by 156,600 tons from last week, the growth rate slightly expanded, and the apparent demand for steel fell obviously.

The current poor steel demand is related, on the one hand, to the impact of the downstream construction schedule during the rainy season, and on the other hand, to the pessimistic expectations of the steel market for cautious procurement.

The regional inventory decline began to differentiate this week. Due to the continuous rain in the south, the overall inventory decline in East and South China slowed down, and the decline in building materials inventory was weaker than the hot roll.

In terms of building materials, inventories in East China turned from falling to increasing, and are still higher than 70% in the same period last year. Secondly, the inventory deceleration in South China has slowed down significantly, and the pressure on total inventory is relatively high, nearly 90% higher than the same period last year. Overall, the decline in inventory in North China is ahead of other regions. According to mainstream warehouse statistics, it is close to the same period last year. This is also an important reason why steel prices have recently shown upside down.